Yet another week of shifting momentum away from sellers. The average change in the Cromford Market Index (CMI)* sits at -2.7%, matching last week’s decline.
Only one city—Paradise Valley—has improved for sellers over the past month, just like last week. PV is on a strong upward trend with a +15% increase, driven largely by reduced supply. Many high-end sellers pull their listings for the summer, and with 34 cancellations in the past month, buyers are now facing the lowest inventory levels since last September. We also expect a spike in expirations around June 30.
The remaining 16 cities saw declines, though most were modest. Buckeye took the biggest hit, dropping below 50 with a -8% change. Fountain Hills and Phoenix followed, both down -6%.
We now have just 2 seller’s markets (one of which is very weak), 7 balanced markets, and 9 buyer’s markets. Cave Creek has shifted from balanced to buyer’s market territory, while Avondale slipped from seller to balanced.
Among the secondary cities, the following are in buyer’s markets:
Arizona City, Casa Grande, Gold Canyon, Laveen, Litchfield Park, Sun City, Sun City West, and Sun Lakes.
Seller’s markets include:
Anthem, Apache Junction, El Mirage, and Tolleson.
There are currently no balanced markets among the secondaries, though Sun Lakes may soon get there as inventory begins its seasonal drop heading into summer.
*Cromford Market Index™ is a value that provides a short term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market.
