Arizona adds nearly 100,000 residents in 2015

Arizona added nearly 100,000 residents over the past year, sluggish gains by the state's historic standards, but enough to remain among the fastest-growing states in the nation.

The latest population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau show Arizona is the 14th-most-populous state after passing Massachusetts in 2015. Arizona grew 1.5 percent and had 6,828,065 residents as of July 1, the agency estimates.

That was nearly double the nation's 0.8 percent population growth. The U.S. population topped 321 million during the summer.

Arizona's own population estimate, using a more conservative approach, puts the state's head count at 6,758,251. The state assumes nearly 70,000 fewer residents. During the 2010 census, the U.S. Census Bureau overestimated Arizona's population more than any other state in the nation, largely because of assumptions about growth due to the overbuilding of houses.

Using either approach, it was another year of slow growth for the nation, with relatively few people moving across state lines. That pattern, a holdover from the housing crash and the Great Recession, likely has held down Arizona's overall growth and its economy.

"We're not going to see anything dramatic in the near term" in population growth, said Tom Rex, associate director of the Center for Competitiveness and Prosperity Research at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University. "We're probably going to stay at the pace we are at until the next recession."

Paul Shannon, director of the Labor Market Information program for the Arizona Department of Administration, said population growth isn't as central to the state's broader health as it had been in years past.

"Our economy is changing. It's not based on rapid growth as much," he said. "The problem with the model we had last time was we were growing, growing, growing until we collapsed and lost two-thirds of our construction jobs."

Shannon noted that the state's nonpartisan Joint Legislative Budget Committee recently said Arizona's revenues were coming in ahead of forecasts, suggesting the economy continues to strengthen.

Arizona's economic recovery from the most recent downturn has been among the slowest in the nation. The Phoenix metro area only recently reached its pre-recession job levels, while the rest of the state remains well short of a full comeback.

Every year, the Census estimates states' populations on July 1.

The 99,282 people Arizona gained from July 1, 2014, to July 1, 2015, was the eighth-highest total in the nation. The state recorded about 87,000 births over the past year. In the same time, it also had 53,000 deaths for "natural" gains of about 34,000.

Arizona added 63,000 residents from other places,  ranking sixth nationally. A closer look shows it was fourth in attracting residents from other states and 17th in international migrants.

By comparison, a decade ago Arizona was adding an estimated 190,000 new residents annually, Rex said. That helped boost job growth to 125,000 annually at the peak of the housing boom, he said. This year, the best since the recession ended, Arizona will add about 60,000.

"People are not making the long-distance moves in the same proportion that they used to, and that's not just the older people," Rex said.

Among Western states, Colorado, Utah and Nevada each posted bigger or faster gains than Arizona.

Arizona's jump past Massachusetts was the highest-ranking change among the few states that moved. Utah made the biggest gain, passing Mississippi and Arkansas for 31st-most populous.

North Dakota, aided by an oil and gas boom that has since ended, topped the nation with 2.3 percent growth over the past year. Colorado and Nevada each grew 1.9 percent.

Texas added the most people, 490,000. Florida and California each added more than 350,000.

If the population remains relatively anchored, it could mean Arizona would not see its representation in the U.S. House of Representatives grow when the 435 seats are reapportioned after the 2020 census. The state hasn't stayed at the same representation number since the 1950s.

Based on the latest estimates, Arizona would not pick up additional seats in Congress, according to an apportionment calculator by the Population Studies Center at the University of Michigan. Florida, North Carolina, Oregon and Texas would each pick up one seat, while Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania stand to lose one seat each.

Source: http://www.azcentral.com